A second COVID wave, a second national lockdown? Not so fast

Originally published at RogueGeopolitics.com

On April 30, CIDRAP published a handy, broad-based scenario guide for what the rest of 2020’s pandemic might look. It broke the future into three scenarios: a “peaks and valleys” scenario, a “Spanish Flu 2 massive wave” scenario, and a “slow burn” scenario — all of which still seem viable right now.

I can’t go into the epidemiology of the three scenarios and how accurate they might be; that’s really someone else’s job. But what I can do as a political risk…